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Showing posts from 2021

Whither bitcoin?

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It kills me how people reporting in finance will sagely advise, either vaguely enough to be meaningless, or just incorrectly. Jim Cramer was infamous at one point for loudly hollering advice slightly worse than a coin toss. If you want good investment advice, listen to "the sage of omaha" here:  BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC. SHAREHOLDER LETTERS The text below is from a comment I made on disqus here: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2021/06/01/bitcoin-price-outlook-btc-usd-rebound-or-dead-cat-bounce.html At the end of this analysis, I feel like trading is like a social game akin to discussing astrology. To me, the narrative looks like this: "We have technical indications we have seen before. Like other technical indications, it leaves us with this: It might go up, it might go down, could be a lot, or could be a little. We have to wait for it to unfold to be able to explain-predict what happened. " If those various technical indications had predictive merit, some...

Trust is the New Black

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As we shift deeper into an attention economy, maintaining eyeballs will get ever more difficult. One of the things that will drive users off of a platform if they have a choice is loss of control, and compromised privacy. That is already an issue for holdouts that have not gone online in earnest.  I have had more than a little interest in privacy for a long time. I knew it was coming, but the flagrance is still breathtaking to behold. Keep in mind, these are the *good guys*: http://blog.bobtrower.com/2019/09/privacy-weve-heard-of-it.html I posted a prediction that Facebook would reach $1 Trillion Market Cap back in 2012 when Forbes thought it was a short at $75B.  https://blog.bobtrower.com/2012/03/facebook-singularity-at-1000000000000.html Facebook outperformed my prediction by hitting $900B ahead of schedule, instead of the $800B I predicted by now, but they definitely underperformed in capitalizing on their competitive opportunities to compete against Google. This situation...