Saturday, January 29, 2022

Yes, COVID is real.

Questioning whether or not we are in a pandemic is nonsensical on its face. Questioning things like tests for COVID, betrays a fundamental lack of understanding of statistics, chemistry, sampling techniques, and titration. 

It also displays a lack of understanding of psychology, and social mores. Regardless of any technical matter, if you are refusing to vaccinate and mask, then you lack judgment. You should not be advising people on strategies for dealing with life-threatening disease.

Healthcare systems are being overwhelmed because of the spread of the virus. Advice not to mask or vaccinate exacerbates an already thus far uncontainable problem. Every single person you convince becomes a vector for disease. Even in the case of the vanishingly small likelihood that you are correct that the danger is low, and a majority of the world’s medical people are somehow mendacious or incompetent, It is bad manners to advise against simple measures that make people more comfortable that their loved ones will be safe.

I will hazard a guess that you have been wrong before in your life about something. The evidence says that you are badly mistaken in this case both as a technical matter and a social one.

You may well be correct that we are propagandized, that main stream media is often untrustworthy, that there are many conflicts of interest that make judgement difficult, and that the majority of people are ill-equipped to examine evidence. Conspiracies do exist. However, there is not a world-wide conspiracy among medical personal to fake evidence, lie about ICUs being stressed, and create elaborate false reports. 

It is easy to examine tons of material put online by me, and to verify that I am a real person with a family, a house, and a dog, as well as technical credentials and a track record of technical success. I am not involved in a conspiracy about this. I examined the data about this at the very beginning, and continued to examine data for more than a year. The evidence of which I am aware tells us that the pandemic is quite real, and that simple harmless measures like masking and getting vaccinated will save lives. 

If your belief is simply unshakeable, at least keep your physical distance from people, like me, who are at risk and who have families that care about them. Don’t be wandering about in public places spreading disease. Surely you can see that even if the disease is illusory you still make people uncomfortable if you are unvaccinated, unmasked and exposing yourself to people's loved ones. 

If you have ever, in your life, discovered that you have been incorrect and changed your mind, I highly suggest that you stand well back and re-examine, not just those things that confirm your clear biases, but also, as I have done, evidence that contradicts your point of view. I am, like everyone else, imperfect. However, it was clear to me even back in early 2020, that this was an aggressive pathogen spreading at an exponential rate. I got the data and did the numbers myself. For theories that this is a fake pandemic to be correct, nearly every agency in the world reporting numbers for more than 5 billion people is incompetent or dishonest. Anybody sufficiently numerate will realize that this is improbable to the point of being essentially impossible.

The raw data for more than 200 countries from Jan 2020 through to the present can be downloaded from github. The data supports the fact that COVID has had a severe impact

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