NATO/Russia -- Enough Already

NATO on Notice

Update 2024-09-19:

"For those who didn't get it the first time" [In reference to prior threat by Putin] "What the European Parliament is calling for leads to a world war using nuclear weapons," -- Vyacheslav Volodin -- Putin insider, Member of Russian Security Council

The fact that a request for "long-range missiles to hit targets inside Russia" (see September 2024 below) is on the table (though not yet agreed to) means that the use of nuclear weapons on targets in the West is also on the table—if they weren’t already. Perhaps it won’t be done, but Russia has made it clear that a red line was crossed when forces came to their doorstep. Crossing over into Russian territory challenges that, but is it just a bluff? -- Update: I am not alone in being concerned. https://www.icanw.org/will_putin_use_nuclear_weapons Nuclear weapons are horrific, but damage from low yield tactical weapons is contained enough that their use is plausible: https://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/ It seems it is being seriously considered, but for whatever reason it is being downplayed. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/tactical-nuclear-weapons-russia-putin/ 

A military attack on a territory defended by nuclear
weapons seems like a bad idea. Volodymyr Zelensky frames it as a strategy to force Russia to the bargaining table. It may force Russia's hand, but not in a way anybody wants to see. The West has played a game of chicken with Russia in the past and won, but I don't think that is a reliable precedent for the current situation.

Below is a timeline of quotes that reflect my understanding before writing this. Russia has been clear in the past that NATO moving into former Soviet territory is unacceptable.

2008

"Nato membership for Ukraine and Georgia could threaten European security and undermine attempts to improve transatlantic relations, the Russian president-elect warned today." -- https://www.theguardian.com/world/2008/mar/25/russia.ukraine

"F. Stephen Larrabee, an expert on NATO and Eastern Europe, says Russia’s invasion of Georgia was an effort to limit "Western influence into the former Soviet space."" -- https://www.cfr.org/interview/russias-offensive-georgia-signal-nato-stay-away-its-space

2022

" ... in the words of Russian President Vladimir Putin, NATO's eastward march represents decades of broken promises from the West to Moscow. ... "You promised us in the 1990s that [NATO] would not move an inch to the East. You cheated us shamelessly," Putin said ..." -- https://www.npr.org/2022/01/29/1076193616/ukraine-russia-nato-explainer

2023

"Russian president Vladimir Putin launched his criminal war as a reaction to the possibility of NATO expanding into Ukraine, and the alliance’s refusal to swear it off — not once or twice, but three separate times." -- https://responsiblestatecraft.org/russia-ukraine-nato-expansion/

2024

(July) "NATO condemns in the strongest possible terms Russia's brutal and unprovoked war of aggression against Ukraine - which is an independent, peaceful and democratic country, and a close NATO partner. NATO and Allies continue to provide Ukraine with unprecedented levels of support, helping to uphold its fundamental right to self-defence." -- https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_192648.htm

(June) "MOSCOW, June 3 (Reuters) - Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said on Monday the United States could face "fatal consequences" if it ignored Moscow's warnings not to let Ukraine use weapons provided by Washington to strike targets inside Russia."

(September) "President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has urged his Western allies to allow Ukraine to use long-range missiles to hit targets inside Russia and increase pressure on Moscow to end the war."