Attributing the L.A. Fires

It’s striking that in reflecting on the decline of rational thinking and evidence-based approaches, we often end up unwittingly embracing some of the very habits we decry. Recently, a section of a post online stood out to me—"giving vent to cheap explanations you know are too easy to be true but just make you feel good"—feels particularly apt when applied to how we talk about climate change.

Take the “immolation of Los Angeles” as an example. If we dig into it, the explanation isn’t as simple as "climate change" flipping some apocalyptic switch. There’s credible evidence that fire management budgets were slashed, warnings from preparedness experts were ignored, and proper forest and urban interface management wasn’t prioritized. These are tangible, actionable factors we can address. Instead, the issue is often framed as part of a single, all-encompassing narrative about CO₂, leaving no room for solutions outside that lens.

It’s also worth noting that global data on wildfires shows a slight decline in the total area burned over the past two decades—something counterintuitive to the “worse than ever” narrative. The decline is largely attributed to changing land-use practices, especially in places like Africa, where savanna burning has decreased. But that nuance is lost in the drive to pin every fire, flood, or drought on “climate change.”

This isn’t to say there’s no issue to address. But when we attribute every ill to a single cause, we risk creating simplistic narratives that don’t hold up to scrutiny—and worse, divert resources from other pressing environmental or social challenges. The now multi-trillion-dollar climate industry doesn’t always seem eager to engage with this complexity, and that’s concerning.

It's true that the hard work of unraveling mysteries and solving problems is what moves us forward. But that means asking better questions, resisting simplistic answers, and being willing to challenge even the narratives that feel comforting or familiar. 

References

Here are the references supporting the points made. They include direct links for your convenience:

1. Pyne, S. J. (2020). Why wildfires have declined globally in recent decades. Our World in Data. Retrieved from https://ourworldindata.org/global-wildfire-burn-has-declined

2. Fullerton, J. (2021, July 13). California wildfires and the overlooked role of forest management. Los Angeles Times. Retrieved from https://www.latimes.com/environment/story/2021-07-13/california-forest-management-wildfires

3. Gleick, P. H. (2020). The overlooked relationship between climate adaptation and water resources. Science Advances. Retrieved from https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/6/29/eaba3299

4. Fire Management Program. (2022). The reduction of wildfire preparedness budgets and its impact on California wildfires. California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection (CAL FIRE). Retrieved from https://www.fire.ca.gov/publications/fire-prevention-funding-report

5. Pielke, R. A., Jr. (2019). Wildfire trends: Untangling climate and management factors. Environmental Research Letters. Retrieved from https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab4c4f/meta